Pareto Principle: Vilfredo Pareto noticed that 80% of Italy’s wealth was owned by 20% of the population. He then carried out surveys on a variety of other countries and found to his surprise that a similar distribution applied. The 1992 United Nations Development Program Report showed the distribution of global income to be very uneven, with the richest 20% of the world’s population controlling 82.7% of the world’s income.
The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, may be applied to a variety of mundane matters.
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. 2008
Let’s just step back to Rosenbaum’s opinion (and the opinion of just about everyone else that is involved in the martial arts) that karate originally developed as a mostly unarmed civilian self-defense system. I am just going to make the assumption that this is the truth; it fits with everything I know and have experienced in karate, and it also feeds into the entire rest of my thesis. It would hardly do to contradict myself and invalidate my thesis so early in the process. I leave it to other, more capable martial artists than I to completely invalidate my text.
Anyway, if karate was develped as simple self-defense for the average citizen, what exactly would it be defending against? Karate most likely would be defense against common street attacks by untrained or poorly trained thugs with criminal intent. Patrick McCarthy originally coined the term “Habitual Acts of Physical Violence” (HAPV) which has since evolved into “Habitual Acts of Violence” (HAOV), a more inclusive term that covers non-contact acts of violence such as invasion of personal space to threaten and intimidate. If one considers that there are really just a limited number of ways that the human body may move and there are a very few instinctive attacks, we may be able to assemble a very specific list of techniques that a person can expect to encounter if they are assaulted. This list would be the “HAOV” to which Mr. McCarthy refers. And here also is where “Pareto’s Principle” comes into play.
As referred to in the lead-in quote, Pareto’s 80-20 rule may be applied to many different “mundane” subjects. Karate would be one of those “mundane subjects” (or is that “arcane”?). The concept goes something like this: “If only 20% of the possible attack techniques are likely to be used in 80% of physical confrontations, then it is very likely that self-defense training should dedicate 80% of it’s training time learning how to defend against that specific 20%. Furthermore, the karateka should dedicate 80% of his time to training the 20% of his own techniques that are likely to be effective in physical confrontation.”. You can thank Rick Clark, author of “75 Down Blocks” for that simple but confusing subject. Basically, what it says is train those few techniques that really work most of the time and learn to apply them against those few techniques that you are likely to encounter. Furthermore, the same principle could be applied to kata applications assessment: when considering possible applications for any kata, the first assumption made must be that the incoming attack will of the common street variety rather than some exotic karate technique. Certainly, in my experience, all the kata applications I know work best against street assaults such as round-house punches and football kicks. How about we look at some of the potential attacks.
Rick Clark gives a pretty decent list of possible attacks in his little book “75 Down Blocks”. The list is distilled from several sources, the majority of which were police reports of violence encountered during arrests. Of course, police officers likely encounter far more and different types of violence than the average citizen: let’s face it, every day police encounter a whole different lower form of the human species than the average citizen. Still, there are only a few, predictable ways the human body may move, therefor it does not pay to get too focused on all the potential attacks you may encounter. The four most common assaults you may expect (only four??) are 1. a grab, 2. a push, 3. a punch and 4. a kick. Each of these attacks also have sub-groups, but defenses against those sub-groups will likely be variations of a single theme. For example, if the assailant grabs you, it will be one of three techniques: a same-side grab, a cross-side grab, or a double grab. Furthermore, there are only a few, likely targets the enemy will grab: your hand, somewhere on your arm, your lapel, your throat or your hair. On the same subject, there are likely only three specific follow ups to these grabs: forceful abduction or control, a strike, or a choke. The strikes you may expect in these follow-ups (or certainly as a primary attack) are just three: round-house punch/ hook to the head, upper-cut to the head or body, and perhaps, rarely, a straight punch to the head or body. As far as kicking goes, the majority of the kicks are going to be front football type kick to the predictable targets below the belt. You may run into the odd guy that attempts a round-house kick and certainly a knee strike should always be expected if you get too close. Steve Collins, creator or the R.E.A.C.T self-defense system adds attacks such as tackles, head butts, and head locks, while Bill Burgar asks us to consider bear hugs, grabs from behind, and simple invasion of personal space. All told, this is a very limited list, and not a karate style step-in punch or spinning back kick in the bunch.
As an aside here, we really should address the basic point of all this: self-defense. Self-defense “gurus” such as Peyton Quinn, Steve Collins and Tony Annesi (among many others) have repeatedly stated the obvious: the best defense to any attack is avoidance. Of course, avoidance assumes recognition of the circumstances. I would suspect that anyone with any common sense would know that dark alleys and skid-row shooting galleries are best avoided, but many of us are at a loss to notice when we are actually about to get bitten by the shark. In his published articles, Peyton Quinn often recounts his rough beginnings as a road-house bouncer: his primary failing was in timing rather than technique. He, as most of us do, failed to recognize the impending shit storm in it’s earliest stages, when a limited confrontation (hopefully just verbal jousting) was still possible. Tony Annesi suggests that there are two basic confrontations you may encounter: the sudden attack or blitz attack, or the combat attack or duel. The sudden attack would be the most common, but of course, what is “sudden” to some may be “predictable” to others. It really depends on how observant you may be. Muggers typically select their victims: they observe, watch for signs of weakness or perhaps test the waters with some simple probing. Quinn calls this “the interview”; it may consist of a few choice threats or just a simple passing “bump” to see how the intended reacts. Undue attention from a stranger and his “posse” may be the first warning of an attack or perhaps merely the presence of a stranger loitering “out of place” may be a sign of trouble. Often, what seemed to be a sudden attack to us was really an assault that was pre-planned and packaged before we even came on the seen. Dave Doncaster, a police instructor with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police used to tell of a team of muggers that haunted the bars of a small, mid western Canadian city. This pair would actually go out “trawling” for victims; one of the pair would engage the victim with a threatening verbal barrage while the other would blind-side him with a sucker punch. The two gentlemen were never convicted and their crime spree only came to an end when one of the men died while imprisoned for unrelated crimes. The point made here is that these guys planned well ahead for an attack their victims thought of as suddenly coming out of nowhere.
Steve Collins, in his text outlining his R.E.A.C.T system, gives us a few of the visual ques to watch for when confronted with an aggressive individual. In the early stages of a confrontation, the aggressor may have a flushed face, accost you with foul or threatening language and become progressively more physical. Try to ignore the words and watch the body language; people lie but actions never do. Ragged, rapid and shallow breathing may suggest indecisive moments as he contemplates an attack, while taking an upright, chest forward stance may indicate posturing for a dominant effect. As the situation escalates, the individual may become more animated and start to invade your space. Often the attacker can be seen clenching and relaxing his fists as he builds himself up to attack. Once this fever pitch is reached, you need to prepare and watch for the “calm before the storm”, because the signs of imminent attack are near. Once the moments of indecision are passed, the assailant may become pale, drop his voice to a tight lipped murmur and focus down his gaze, intent on his victim. Typically there will be a drop into a “stance”, however subtle; it may just be a slight shift of a foot into a right or left lead. Often, just before the first blow is thrown, the offensive banter stops altogether and you may see a indrawn breath. At this moment the opponent may actually turn away from you, hiding his face, only looking around at that last moment to find a target. All this may occur over just a few seconds, but if you remain calm and observant, you might have that slight advantage you need.
Once the attack is started, the untrained street fighter does not “spar”: usually the attack will be a blitz attack with the first blows aimed at the head. Most attacks will start at far shorter distances than commonly found in “dojo sparring”; often well within grabbing or grappling range. You are very unlikely to run into any traditional martial arts techniques; most of the attacks will run to sloppy but continuous attacks, usually raining down upon the head by preference. Most of the fights will only last a few seconds, ending with the downing or submission of one participant. Sadly enough, the winner is most often whomever threw the first punch. Oh, and forget rules; real fights don’t have rules.
So, lets just recap the previous few paragraphs quickly and then ask ourselves how that applies to kata. Attackers will use a limited, predictable number of very basic attacks. Muggers choose their victims, often through predator hunting practices which reveal the “natural born victims”. Learning to watch for these predator behaviours and the typical body language indication imminent attack can help you avoid or at least suppress any potential attack. Attackers usually enter their onslaught from a close distance with a rapid-fire blitz attack, often initially attacking the head. There is rarely any form of sparring behaviour and unless you manage a successful defense immediately the fight will likely be over in seconds. So… how does this apply to kata?
All applications of kata are going to be based only on the behaviour of the attacker: they are about doing what you have to do, not what you want to do. Here are some basic precepts that will flow directly from typical attack behaviour: 1. applications will likely be medium to short distance 2. first application of the kata must be an early interception and suppression of the first attacking technique.3. Often that first “defense” will be against either a grab (prior to a dirty little head shot) or against a dirty little head shot 4. body movement will help suppress any possible second attack by either moving off the primary attack line or unbalancing the attacker. 5. after the first suppressing technique, every move will represent continued dominance of the attacker, resulting in his inability to continue any attack. There is never any “sparring” in kata. This sequence of intercept/suppress-dominate-disable should be represented in every possible kata application. Finally, based on the 80-20 rule as it applies to our own defenses, we can expect to see variations of a very few basic technique applied repeatedly throughout the kata against similar types of attacks.
Having touched briefly on the psychology and actions of any potential attacker, we need to look at the psychology and reactions of any potential defender, for they too are going to influence kata applications. Your natural physiological reaction to the stress of an attack will definitely affect your physical capabilities during that attack. Any realistic kata application will have to work under the duress of acute stress and the physical limitations it may put upon your body. The term that has been coined for this sudden physiological shift is “the adrenaline dump” .
Kane and Wilder, in their excellent text “The Way of Kata” pretty much outlines the physiological response to imminent threat. Perception of threat starts a chain reaction throughout the body starting at the little crocodile brain at the base of our Cerebrum. Under acute stress, the amygdala, sitting a few centimeters behind the eyeballs, sends out signals to activate a series of hormonal responses. The metabolic rate is increased as both the thyroid and adrenal glands are kicked into action, releasing cortisone, thyroxine and, most importantly, adrenaline (epinephrine). The epinephrine has a multiplicity of effects, all designed to put the body into “fight or flight”mode. The pupils dilate, which allows more light into the eye but will interfere with our ability to focus on details. Going back to our earlier discussion on how our eyes work, this is actually a good thing: focusing slows us down by using the relatively insensitive cones grouped around the ocular fovea rather than the highly sensitive (especially to movement) rods predominating on the periphery of the ocular retina. We need to lose our focus, both actually and intellectually; remember we do not want to “think” here because thinking while fighting is a slow thing. Down in the lungs the epinephrine causes bronchodilation, opening the airways and allowing increased airflow, while in the peripheral circulatory system it causes vasoconstriction, closing down superficial blood vessels and diverting blood centrally to the muscles and immediately vital organs: the heart and lungs. Organs that are not immediately necessary are temporarily shut down: blood is diverted away from the kidneys, digestive tract, and spleen. Bodily wastes may be voided (urine and feces) as all extra weight is jettisoned. Throughout this process the heart rate is climbing in response to the epinephrine dump. At this point the body is fully prepared to either fight or flee; the muscles filled with blood, the lungs exchanging oxygen at peak efficiency, blood sugar (glucose) has elevated acutely, and the central blood pressure has topped out. On the other hand, our mental acuity and manual dexterity has dropped dramatically.
Kane and Wilder provide a very complete chart, but it will suffice to say that as the “adrenaline dump” proceeds and your heart rate climbs you will progressively lose fine muscle control until only gross, large muscle mass movements become effective. As the stress increases, tracked by ever climbing heart rate, sensory perception fades: hearing deteriorates, tunnel vision occurs, and logical, tactical thought becomes a challenge. Once we reach maximum heart rate, we have ceased to be capable of any complex thoughts; we are running on pure animal instinct. And here is the take-home pearl: the only dependable skills left once you have reached true combat mode are those skills that you have completely internalized to the point of near instinctive action. Furthermore, even the best fighter is going to find the complex techniques such as joint manipulations or pain-compliance techniques to be nearly impossible to successfully apply: he just won’t have the fine muscle control. Clearly, any realistic applications found in a kata are going to have to take the predictable physical limitations of the “adrenaline dump” into account.
Take two basic truths into account when reading this next section. In the kumite section we already discussed the nature of brain activity and the fact that when we are “fighting” or sparring we do not necessarily want to be actively thinking: we want to be observing and reacting. On the other hand, above I said that under acute stress we do not actually ”think” well at all: we react instinctively. If we want to perform well under combat conditions, we need to train enough that we are indeed capable of performing a finite number of effective techniques with limited intellectual input. We need to operate in “crocodile mode”. Two of my references dealt with this subject in two different methods, both of which deserve some coverage. Bill Burgar, in “Five Years, One Kata” discusses an OODA loop, which stands for Observe- Orient- Decide- Act. Basically he is suggesting that in every scenario you will have to perceive the threat, orient yourself to that threat and consider the possible responses, decide on the appropriate response and act. The action and any possible outcome will feed you back into another OODA loop as the situation progresses. Clearly, the more involved the OODA loop may be with multiple options and outcomes, the slower the process becomes. In a conflict situation you need to simplify the action-reaction process so decision making is quick and possible outcomes are predictable. Considering potential kata applications, this would suggest that any technique should produce a predictable response in the opponent and any follow up technique should naturally flow from that response. We want our OODA loops to naturally flow so we need not “think” while fighting.
Kane and Wilder approach the issue from a slightly different direction: the decision tree. As a veterinarian I frequently use this sort of analytical process and actually have entire text books filled with decision trees. The actual term for the process is Bayesian Medical Diagnostic Algorithms. The basic premise is that for a given set of symptoms the practitioner can create a series of decision pathways based on the sequential results of a series of diagnostic tests. This pathway, with a very high degree of probability, will almost always yield the correct diagnoses and as an added bonus, tends to be the most thorough process in the medical-legal context. Unfortunately the algorithmic process tends to be slow, often to the point of nonsensical process simply for the sake of process. As an example, a patient with a severe lameness hardly needs to go through a detailed work-up to completely characterize the lameness if a broken bone is clearly protruding through the skin. Obviously, in an acute, emergent situation the decision tree needs to be pruned down to an absolute minimum. Kane and Wilder call it the creation of a “decision stick”; the martial artist needs to formulate just a very few basic responses to any assault, train them so they are instinctive, and stick to that formula. Bill Burgar suggests the same idea when he talks about the “log jam” theory of combat: under stress if the fighter has too many possible responses, he is likely to contemplate and thus hesitate rather than operate. This all comes back to my statements (which are based on the thoughts of many other authors: there really is nothing new under this sun) in the kumite section: the only intent in any fight or kumite match is to take and maintain complete dominance of the opponent, regardless of your personal strategy. This may mean striking first or it may mean using pre-emptive blocking to destabilize the opponent, suppress further attack, and render him incapable of any attack as quickly as possible. “The Way of Kata” (among others) suggests that, in a perfect world, the first interception ( I will not call it a “block”) should be applied so efficiently that further effective assault is impossible.
So, very quickly, let’s just list the elements of kata that we have covered in this section. This list will be the first of several that may help us ferret out potential kata applications:
1. kata applications will likely be against just a few common techniques that might be used by an untrained thug. A simple list of these are a grab, a push, a strike and a kick. Most primary attacks are to the head. Most decisive attacks are to the head.
2. 80% of fights will only involve less than 20% of likely attacks. 80% of Kata applications will likely demonstrate defenses against that likely 20% of attacks.
3. most assaults commence, occur and finish at medium to short distance. Kata applications should be against medium to short range street-style attacks.
4. most assaults are over within a few seconds and involve rapid-fire blitz style attack. Kata applications should demonstrate early suppression of any assault where each technique either disrupts, unbalances, or injures the attacker, making his “blitz” attack lose momentum or completely fail.
5. there is no sparring in real fighting, there should be no sparring in kata. Intercept/suppress-dominate-incapacitate.
6. fine motor skills and intellectual capabilities deteriorate under acute combat stress. Kata applications should not require fine motor skills or complex thoughts. Most kata applications will be variations of a few simple themes, allowing repetitive training of skill sets and hopefully instinctive application under stress. As an aside: anything that will require detailed motor movements or complex thoughts may be demonstrated as a slow movement within a kata.
7. Considering the OODA loop, in a real fight you cannot take the time to apply complex decision making processes. Kata applications should produce a predictable reaction in the opponent (ie; a powerful head strike will usually cause the opponent’s head to snap back and his stance to rise up, often leaving his body open for a follow up shot) and any follow up technique should be designed to go with that predictable reaction. Keep the OODA loops to a minimum by creating predictable reactions in the enemy.
8. decision algorithms have to be practically eliminated in real fighting. Only by early suppression of the blitz attack can we cut the “decision tree” to a simple “decision stick”. While we can predict reactions from our own attacks, we cannot predict primary actions by our opponent, therefor we need to be por-active from the very first technique and suppress all further techniques by complete dominance from that point.
This completes this section: we have actually covered quite a distance and I have not even named a single kata nor discussed a single technique yet. I am not sure a person can get any more style neutral than that. Please keep in mind that, while I do not directly cite any one author, I give credit to all authors on this subject. There really are no “new” ideas with regards to fighting, just new ways of describing those ideas.
